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Not added (avoids double count)","inputs":["cf_api_2024"],"low":0,"mid":0,"high":0,"subset":true},{"id":"cdn_auto","name":"CDN-observed automated bytes","method":"Not published by Cloudflare/Akamai as a byte share; phase 2 cross-check","inputs":["cf_radar_api"],"low":0,"mid":0,"high":0,"subset":true}],"bottom_up_eb":{"low":6.5852750857142865,"mid":21.285784363636363,"high":80.174876},"bottom_up_share":{"low":0.009014932005222936,"mid":0.02856439938909155,"high":0.09971070903103307},"top_down_share":{"low":0.05,"mid":0.09,"high":0.14,"method":"Cisco VNI M2M ~3% (2017) -> ~6% (2022 forecast) of IP traffic, trended to 2025, + crawler bytes","inputs":["cisco_vni_m2m","hvm_model"]},"reconciled_share":{"low":0.009014932005222936,"mid":0.059282199694545776,"high":0.14},"note":"Machine share of bytes is MODELLED, never measured. 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980 trillion in July 2025; >20x in a year","src_id":"google_tokens_2025"},{"label":"OpenAI API: tokens per minute","value":"> 6 billion","detail":"Oct 2025; ChatGPT >800M weekly users","src_id":"openai_devday_2025"},{"label":"Google API: tokens per minute","value":"7 billion","detail":"direct API use, Oct 2025","src_id":"google_tokens_2025"},{"label":"AI 'user action' crawling (agents fetching for people)","value":"> 15x","detail":"growth in 2025, Cloudflare","src_id":"cf_yir_2025"}]},"moore":{"ratio_req_now":1.1276595744680853,"ratio_bytes_now":0.06382978723404255,"target_ratio":999.0,"window_months":60.0,"doublings_needed_req":9.791009264906856,"doublings_needed_bytes":13.933967218748899,"implied_doubling_months_req":6.128071006433757,"implied_doubling_months_bytes":4.30602419670306,"historical_doubling_months_req_2019_2025":77.51991895650667,"historical_doubling_months_req_2012_2025":1349.292989592583,"historical_doubling_months_bytes_2010_2025":292.5230381293835,"moore_classic_months":[18,24],"table":[{"doubling_months":3,"doublings":20.0,"ratio_req":1182436.765957447,"human_req":8.457104710202461e-07,"ratio_bytes":66930.3829787234,"human_bytes":1.4940674396611329e-05,"thesis_req":true,"thesis_bytes":true},{"doubling_months":6,"doublings":10.0,"ratio_req":1154.7234042553193,"human_req":0.0008652589333382425,"ratio_bytes":65.36170212765957,"human_bytes":0.015068932350112217,"thesis_req":true,"thesis_bytes":false},{"doubling_months":12,"doublings":5.0,"ratio_req":36.08510638297873,"human_req":0.026965002868617322,"ratio_bytes":2.0425531914893615,"human_bytes":0.3286713286713287,"thesis_req":false,"thesis_bytes":false},{"doubling_months":18,"doublings":3.3333333333333335,"ratio_req":11.366096279902688,"human_req":0.08086626348083627,"ratio_bytes":0.6433639403718501,"human_bytes":0.6085079363331571,"thesis_req":false,"thesis_bytes":false},{"doubling_months":24,"doublings":2.5,"ratio_req":6.379005855810558,"human_req":0.13551961057363243,"ratio_bytes":0.3610758031590881,"human_bytes":0.7347129363985291,"thesis_req":false,"thesis_bytes":false},{"doubling_months":36,"doublings":1.6666666666666667,"ratio_req":3.5800959895453017,"human_req":0.21833603537625354,"ratio_bytes":0.202646942804451,"human_bytes":0.831499224259533,"thesis_req":false,"thesis_bytes":false}],"p_thesis_req_n_6_to_24":0.01515,"p_thesis_bytes_n_6_to_24":0.0,"note":"Deterministic: ratio(t) = ratio_now x 2^(months/N). N log-uniform 6-24 months for the probability. Moore's law (transistors) doubled every ~18-24 months; the thesis needs the traffic ratio to double ~3x faster."},"claims":[{"id":"owner","who":"Ulrich Frerk","status":"verified","public_without_quote":true,"text":"Within five years, one in 1,000 of the internet will be human.","date":"2026-11-02","framing":"The prediction: the machine-to-human ratio keeps compounding, almost like Moore's law."}],"global_sources":{"ixp_now":{"INEX":{"avg_gbps":877.3693941647739,"peak_gbps":1314.386735396,"city":"Dublin","src_id":"ixp_inex"},"LONAP":{"avg_gbps":1640.3447863821673,"peak_gbps":2574.552100284,"city":"London","src_id":"ixp_lonap"},"NAPAfrica":{"avg_gbps":4989.42801983815,"peak_gbps":11911.150119404,"city":"Johannesburg / Cape 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